Germany’s Dreamworld

By Aaron Kliegman In July, Germany’s minister for economic affairs made a revealing comment. When asked about Berlin’s refusal to adopt a tougher policy toward China to defend human rights, Peter Altmaier said that applying more pressure would threaten his country’s economic interests. “We have trade relations with many regions across the globe, including in many cases countries that have a different understanding of civil rights than we have in Germany,” Altmaier told Politico. “I have always been convinced and I still believe that change can be achieved through trade.” In other words, China can crack down on innocents in Hong Kong and commit cultural genocide against Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang as long as trade and investment are booming. What’s so striking is not that Germany is conducting a heartless foreign policy, ignoring human suffering to make an already rich country a little bit richer — that would be bad enough. The reality is far worse: Germany actually thinks it’s conducting a moral, humane foreign policy by not confronting others for egregious behavior. For decades, Western elites have argued that China will liberalize as it gets wealthier and becomes more interdependent with the West. In reality, the Chinese Communist Party has only become more brutal and autocratic, undermining the basic assumptions that long undergirded American and European policy toward China. But Germany can’t face this reality, for that would mean confronting the fact that it may need to get tougher on China to oppose a rising threat. And who knows where that could lead? Higher defense spending? Increased nationalism? Appealing to a belief in Western civilization? Such outcomes are absolutely off limits for German leaders, who since World War II have been atoning for their genocidal sins. They refuse to touch anything, even with an outstretched stick, that at all resembles what they deem to be factors that could lead to war again. Berlin thinks it has progressed beyond such outdated, barbarous ways of thinking about the world. Indeed, Germany believes that negotiations and reconciliation are the only legitimate ways to settle disputes between states. Trade and economic engagement, which create interdependence and closer ties, are the ways to change oppressive regimes. This is clearly the view Berlin has taken toward Iran. Sanctions and military force are off limits unless absolutely necessary — meaning that Germany has established no deterrence. (Of course, Germany can only live in this blissful state — with an impotent military to boot — because of the American-led global order, which is based first and foremost on American power. But that’s a conversation for another day.) We therefore shouldn’t have expected much positive news from Monday’s virtual summit between Xi Jinping, the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, and European leaders. After all, consider who was representing the Europeans: European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Sure, there were reports of disagreements between both sides, even on China’s violations of human rights. But Berlin is eager to finalize the long-desired Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and the European Union. Which means that, ultimately, pesky issues like human rights and Chinese imperial expansion won’t distract Germany (and the European Union) from getting what it wants. Here it’s worth noting that China just surpassed the United States to become Germany’s top export market for the first time. According to the German Federal Statistical Office, the total value of German exports to China from April to June was about 23 billion euros, while the total value of German exports to America over the same period was about 20 billion euros. “It’s difficult to get EU countries in the same position when it comes to China,” a senior European diplomat told Politico this week. “Germany is the one pushing for with China.” Experts and European diplomats say Germany refuses to castigate or impose sanctions on China for its repression of Hong Kong and the Uighurs because Berlin fears the economic consequences — and because German leaders want to secure the aforementioned investment deal with China by the end of the year. This fits perfectly with Altmaier’s message from July. But, again, it would be wrong to view German leaders as hard-headed realists just looking out for their narrow national interests. In fact, quite the opposite is true: They believe economic engagement is the smart way to change Beijing’s behavior — and they want to avoid conflict at all costs. Germany is living in a dreamworld. German leaders may think they’re doing good by transforming China’s dictatorship, but they’re really just selling their souls for money — and strengthening a belligerent power with global ambitions. Germany was once the beneficiary of appeasement; now it seems to be the one doing the appeasing. Despite all its efforts, perhaps Germany can’t escape its dark past after all. History may not always repeat itself, but it does at least rhyme. Order Newt's Latest Book: https://www.gingrich360.com/trump-and-the-american-future

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