The Growing Threat of China’s Nuclear Arsenal

Some analysts say not to worry about this rapid modernization because China has far fewer nuclear weapons than the US. They are sorely mistaken. By Aaron Kliegman America’s top military and intelligence officials are becoming alarmed about China’s arsenal of nuclear weapons — and for good reason. On Tuesday, Adm. Charles Richard, the commander of US Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he just ordered all briefs on China’s nuclear weapons to contain no intelligence vetted more than one month earlier “because it's probably out of date” that quickly. “I can't get through a week right now without finding out something we didn't know about China,” Richard said. The admiral explained that China is capable of accurately deploying nuclear weapons anywhere within its region and “will soon be able to do so at intercontinental range.” Plus, he added, there are indications that the Chinese military has moved some of its nuclear forces from a peace-time status to a “launch-on-warning” and “high-alert” status, meaning weapons are armed for launch as soon as Beijing detects an incoming enemy missile. Richard’s testimony came days after the American intelligence community similarly sounded the alarm on China’s nuclear arsenal in its annual threat assessment. “Beijing will continue the most rapid expansion and platform diversification of its nuclear arsenal in its history, intending to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile during the next decade and to field a nuclear triad,” the assessment states. “Beijing is not interested in arms control agreements that restrict its modernization plans and will not agree to substantive negotiations that lock in US or Russian nuclear advantages.” The document notes that China is building a “larger and increasingly capable nuclear missile force that is more survivable, more diverse, and on higher alert than in the past.” Some analysts say not to worry about this rapid modernization because China has far fewer nuclear weapons than the US. They are sorely mistaken. First, we don’t actually know how many nuclear weapons the Chinese have. Recent assessments put the figure anywhere from the low 200s to about 350, while the US has significantly more. But these estimates seem unlikely — indeed, implausible — considering the Defense Intelligence Agency reported in 1984 that China had between 150 and 160 nuclear warheads. There’s no way the Chinese expanded their arsenal so little over the next 37 years as they became exponentially richer and more powerful. Furthermore, Taiwanese and Russian estimates put the number of Chinese nuclear weapons at anywhere from 450 to 1,800 weapons — along with enough fissile material for potentially thousands more. But the point isn’t whether China has a somewhat or significantly smaller arsenal than the US. Regardless of size, Beijing is making its arsenal more diverse, accurate, and deadly. Plus, numerous experts and top American officials are now questioning China’s stated policy of never being the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. Not to mention the Chinese military is developing a greater ability to survive a massive nuclear attack and respond with a massive nuclear attack of its own. Which means China would, for all intents and purposes, achieve a form of nuclear parity with the US, even with far fewer warheads. What makes China’s nuclear modernization especially dangerous is how secretive the Chinese are about their nuclear program. They consistently refuse to engage in any discussions about arms control, surrounding their nuclear weapons with a haze of opacity — such that we know disturbingly little about China’s nuclear capabilities. This has been the case for decades. In June 1982, for example, the United Nations General Assembly held a special session on disarmament. At the gathering, the late Huang Hua, then China's foreign minister, presented a proposal: If the United States and the Soviet Union stopped testing, improving, or manufacturing their nuclear weapons and reduced their arsenals by 50 percent, China would be ready "to join all other nuclear states in undertaking to stop the development and production of nuclear weapons, and to further reduce and ultimately destroy them altogether.” Just six years later, however, as the US and the Soviet Union were drafting the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START I, which significantly reduced each country's nuclear arsenal, China changed its standard for joining arms-control talks. Forget about the 50-percent figure: Moscow and Washington now had to make further "drastic reductions" in their arsenals. And then in 1995, after the US and Russia signed Start I and Start II, Beijing changed its standard once again. China would not, according to nuclear expert Brad Roberts, consider disarmament until the Americans and Russians "reduced their arsenals far beyond START II numbers, abandoned tactical nuclear weapons, abandoned ballistic missile defense, and agreed” never to be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. No matter the circumstance, China was simply uninterested in arms control. This remains the case today, with Chinese officials refusing to reveal details about their nuclear program. It makes sense that China’s nuclear posture and activities have become more aggressive as China has become bolder under the leadership of Xi Jinping. But combine aggression with opacity and a refusal to engage in constructive dialogue, and the result is a dangerous concoction that should alarm American officials about China’s nuclear arsenal. In short, it’s time to address the Chinse nuclear threat. Which means, for starters, ensuring America’s nuclear posture is forceful and clear. It also means the US must follow through on modernizing its own nuclear forces. As Adm. Richards told the Senate Armed Services Committee this week, America’s nuclear weapons comprise “the only weapon system you don’t have to pull the trigger on for it to work.” Newt hosts monthly virtual events in which he discusses news of the day and why it matters to you and your community. These Newt Live events are your opportunity to communicate directly with Newt. We hope you will join us next time and let Newt answer your questions and provide his insight on the issues that concern you most. JOIN TODAY to be a part of this special event and receive a BONUS GIFT. Click here to join Newt’s Inner Circle. More from Aaron Kliegman:

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