Newt gives his thoughts on how Democratic actions in states like New York and California could help Republicans in future elections.
April 26, 2021
Let’s start with the fact that Kevin McCarthy needs five seats to become speaker. David Wasserman in the Cook Report analyzed this data during the day and came back and said there’s a very real chance that the just out of re-apportionment Republicans will pick up eight seats which would be enough to knock out Nancy Pelosi and make Kevin McCarthy the speaker, but there are deeper things going on as you point out, the blue states are just hemorrhaging people, they are shoving them away and what’s crazy is in the middle of all of this, the answer of the liberals is to raise taxes. So, everybody who is productive, who has resources, who pays taxes beginning to leave and instead of trying to figure out how to keep them, they’re actually going to accelerate the transition out of the blue states to the states that are run overwhelmingly by Republicans. You’ve never seen a clearer contrast between a high tax big bureaucracy unionized machine system in all of these states run by Democratic governors and free enterprise small business entrepreneurship, low tax system as we are seeing in almost all Republican states and the result is exactly what human nature tells you what would be, people leave the pain they go to the pleasure and the migration is just going to continue.
Because of my great affection for you, I don’t want to contradict you so if you want to say you are really dumb for saying, I certainly don’t want to disagree with that.
But here’s what’s fascinating: you’ve got in New York and California, the two biggest Democratic states, you have Gavin Newsom in real trouble. They qualified the recall today and I happen to know that he is right on the cusp of losing and has been steadily losing ground for the last couple of months. In New York with somebody like Lee Zeldin running, you’re going to have a lower tax, small business-oriented job creating pro police candidate, and this may be the best chance Republicans have to pick up the governorship of New York since winning back in 1994 so very interesting changes under way, was just told today for example the number two issue now in the New York mayor’s race is crime and it’s rising steadily. We are back in a pre-Giuliani disastrous area of crime and if that sinks in, the combination of crime being anti-police, being pro-criminal, being for huge bureaucracies and raising taxes. That could come together in a way that’s a very powerful.
I certainly think that in New York, you have a real opportunity now because you have such a clear case of the system breaking down particularly in New York City. I think in California, the odds are pretty, remember the recall is yes or no. If Gavin Newsom is under 50%, he’s gone, not in the run-off, and there would be a new governor, the odds are pretty good they would be a Republican.